A new study finds that health practices have avoided 62 million COVID-19 cases. The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic studied six countries.
The researchers looked at four types of health practices:
- Stopping in-person school, public gatherings and religious services. Closing some businesses like restaurants and retail stores
- Quarantine and home isolation
- Restricting travel
- Other policies (like paid sick leave or declaring a state of emergency)
These health practices slowed the spread the most in the United States:
- Social distancing
- Shelter-in-place
- Closing businesses
- Quarantining positive cases
Health practices reduced confirmed cases (positive COVID-19 tests) everywhere. Together, these six countries averted 62 million confirmed cases.
- China: 37 million confirmed cases averted as of March 5
- France: 280,000 confirmed cases averted as of March 25
- Iran: 4.9 million confirmed cases averted as of March 22
- Italy: 2.1 million confirmed cases averted as of April 6
- South Korea: 11.5 million confirmed cases averted as of April 6
- United States: 4.8 million confirmed cases averted as of April 6
As well as confirmed cases, health practices lowered uncounted infections, too. Testing has not been universal. So, each country’s real case count is higher than its confirmed case count. Researchers estimate the six countries averted 500 million infections.
- China: 285 million total infections averted as of March 5
- France: 9 million total infections averted as of March 25
- Iran: 53.8 million total infections averted as of March 22
- Italy: 49.4 million total infections averted as of April 6
- South Korea: 38.5 million total infections averted as of April 6
- United States: 59.9 million total infections averted as of April 6
Many cases would have been fatal. So these health practices saved countless lives.
Want more info? See the data from the Global Policy Laboratory, UC Berkeley, or read the full article by Hsiang et al. (Nature, 2020): The effect of large-scale anti-contagion policies on the COVID-19 pandemic.
